The Manhattan Whispers: Trump's Silent Surge
As Wall Street's wallets open, a new political reality emerges from New York's penthouses
In anticipation of the most anticipated debate of the year, perhaps the decade, maybe of this young millennium, we decided to suspend our business coverage for da day and instead focus on the politics of money for a moment. For business news, feel free to read some of the key stories we broke recently:
Back to the political topic today. In the week leading up to this most anticipated presidential debate, we found ourselves in the heart of New York City, surrounded by an eclectic group of power players. Our mission: to gauge the pulse of the monied set as campaign season shifts into high gear.
The 1%
Our ensemble cast included a Wall Street shark masquerading as a soccer mom, a self-proclaimed "original Trumpette," a Silicon Valley entrepreneur on the brink of a lucrative exit, a lobbyist armed with a curious white paper, and an NYU economics professor whose YouTube following rivals that of many pop stars. As diverse as this group appeared on the surface, a common thread emerged: a growing disillusionment with the Biden administration and a surprising receptivity to Trump's economic promises.
The Wall Street shark, her business attire a far cry from soccer field sidelines, kicked off our discussion with a sharp critique of Biden's tax policies. "Trump wants to reduce capital gains and estate taxes," she asserted, her voice carrying the crisp efficiency of a boardroom presentation. "This isn't just about the wealthy. It's about freeing up capital and allowing farms and smaller businesses to be inherited without the tax collector complicating matters." Her colleague, the self-styled Trumpette, chimed in with a gendered twist: "Women, who usually outlive their spouses, stand to benefit the most."
Our Silicon Valley representative, nursing what appeared to be his third espresso of the hour, didn't mince words. "Biden's base is on the southern border; Trump's base is in the first-class lounge," he quipped, before launching into a litany of tech industry grievances. "We've been asking for more H1-B visas, less regulation, and less rhetoric. What did I pump a hundred million into the Biden campaign for in 2020?" The frustration was palpable, tinged with the bitterness of a jilted lover. “Google and Microsoft won’t touch me because of Khan,” Referring to FTC Chairperson Lina Khan, who has been a prominent figure in President Biden's strict anti-M&A stance.
"Last year was a drought. This year? Still parched," our banker friend quipped, his gaze drifting to the panoramic view from his recently acquired penthouse—a spoil of better times when mergers and acquisitions flowed like champagne and the site of our meeting. The conversation pivoted to the stock market, with our Wall Street cohort scoffing at the notion of crediting Biden for recent gains. "Biden's strutting around like he's Jensen Huang," sneered an analyst who'd joined our circle, name-dropping NVIDIA's rockstar CEO. "But let's be real—the market's riding the AI wave, and if Biden had his way, that swell would be nothing but a ripple."
As if on cue, our lobbyist friend produced a white paper outlining ten regulations they hoped to see abolished under a potential Trump administration. Most were standard fare for Republican wishlist, but number seven caught our attention: a proposal for free buildout of solar farms on federal land, available to any company using U.S.-made solar panels. "Is this the Green Party agenda? Solar Trump?" we asked, eyebrows raised. The lobbyist's response was a masterclass in political doublespeak, framing the proposal as a market-driven alternative to Biden's "wrong" approach of anti-dumping duties. Only a California pol could come up with something like this, we thought, and moved on.
The NYU professor, who had been quietly observing, finally weighed in with the gravitas of an oracle. "Teachers should be the highest-paid people in the country," he began, an unexpected opener that soon spiraled into a dire economic forecast. "With the current regulatory stranglehold, we're headed for a depression worse than '29." When pressed on this bold claim, he doubled down: "Do you know what will happen if the dollar is no longer the reserve currency? Biden is making it possible with his policies."
Underreported shift
So - we gathered the mood in this room is definitely turning very different from what we had anticipated. Then again, we shouldn't have been surprised after our Valley dinner (read how Valley is Turning Red here.). Rich are turning to the Republicans in large numbers, something that's not being reported well enough. "This is smart to not focus too much on the shift. Main street votes for whoever we are not voting for. So, we are happy we are not getting attention," our lobbyist friend weighed in. It's not untrue, we thought to ourselves.
"You know," began the Wall Street shark, setting down her barely-touched martini, "what we're seeing here isn't isolated. It's a groundswell that's been building for months."
Our Silicon Valley entrepreneur nodded vigorously. "Absolutely. The dinner I attended last month in Palo Alto was eye-opening. You wouldn't believe how many tech moguls are quietly shifting their support." He paused, then added with a smirk, "Maybe you would, given tonight's conversation."
We couldn't help but think back to our recent sojourn in Silicon Valley, where we'd witnessed a similar phenomenon. (Readers can find our full report on the Valley's rightward shift in our piece "How Silicon Valley is Turning Red".) The parallels were impossible to ignore.
"It's not just tech and finance," chimed in the NYU professor, his earlier passion now tempered by a professorial thoughtfulness. "I'm seeing it in academia too. Quietly, of course. No one wants to be the nail that sticks out. But in private conversations, more and more of my colleagues are expressing frustration with the Democratic party's direction."
The room fell silent for a moment as we digested this. It was a cynical view, to be sure, but one that seemed to resonate with the assembled group.
"It's not untrue," added the Trumpette, breaking the silence. "The moment the media starts reporting en masse about the wealthy flocking to Trump, it could trigger a backlash. Better to fly under the radar."
The hedge fund manager nodded sagely. "Politics is perception. Despite spending 4 years in DC, the perception is still that Trump is the outsider, the anti-establishment candidate. That works in his favor with a certain demographic. If he's seen as the choice of Wall Street and Silicon Valley... well, that changes the narrative." What’s next, Matt Damon for Trump, we thought.
"But surely," we countered, "this shift will become apparent eventually? These things have a way of coming to light."
The lobbyist shrugged. "By the time it does, it might be too late to matter. Elections are won and lost in the margins. A few percentage points here and there can make all the difference. Fox isn’t reporting on this, we are fine.”
Who’s winning the wallet?
As the conversation continued, we couldn't shake the feeling that we were privy to something significant. The rich were indeed turning to the Republicans in large numbers, but this shift was occurring largely out of the public eye. It was a story that wasn't being told, at least not fully.
The implications were profound. If this trend continued, it could reshape the political landscape in ways that many pundits and pollsters weren't accounting for. The question remained: would this silent shift be enough to tip the scales in the upcoming election?
As the nation tunes in to the debate, we are keeping our eyes on the money and monied. Departing our gilded meeting spot, New York's skyline twinkling in the distance, we're left with more questions than answers. While pundits debate who's ahead, in this room, Trump has already won.